European visitor volume predicted for Asia Pacific in 2011-13
While the relative share of arrivals from Europe is forecast to drop to around 9.1% of the total inbound volume by 2013, the actual numeric count will rise to more than 44 million arrivals from a base of 35.5 million in 2009, averaging annual growth of between 5-6 percent over that period. The impact of European arrivals varies greatly across the sub-regions and destinations within the Asia Pacific region, however, as can be seen by the actual and expected relative shares in 2009 and 2013, respectively.
Arrivals from Europe to Asia Pacific destinations 2009 (actual) and 2013 (forecast), as a percentage of Total Foreign Arrivals:
Relative Share (%) by Destination Sub-region -
North America - 2009: 15.4, 2012f: 14.6
South Asia - 2009: 38.0, 2012f: 35.2
Northeast Asia - 2009: 4.1, 2012f: 4.3
Southeast Asia - 2009: 12.9, 2012f: 12.0
Pacific - 2009: 20.0, 2012f: 17.8
Total - 2009: 9.5, 2012f: 9.1
In a number of cases at the destination level, this is more pronounced where European arrivals can account for a very significant proportion of foreign arrivals.
Arrivals from Europe to Asia Pacific destinations (Top 10), 2009 (actual)&2013 (forecast), as a percentage of Total Foreign Arrivals:
% of Total Foreign Arrivals by Destination -
Maldives - 2009: 70.3, 2012f: 55.7
Tahiti - 2009: 45.4, 2012f: 48.7
Sri Lanka - 2009: 43.9, 2012f: 43.5
Pakistan - 2009: 43.4, 2012f: 36.5
Bhutan - 2009: 39.2, 2012f: 35.1
India - 2009: 33.1, 2012f: 30.9
New Caledonia - 2009: 31.8, 2012f: 22.6
Mongolia - 2009: 31.6, 2012f: 32.3
Nepal - 2009: 28.9 , 2012f: 27.2
Thailand - 2009: 28.7, 2012f: 26.8
Of the almost 500 individual origin-destination pairs from Europe to Asia Pacific destinations, more than a quarter (26.8%) are forecast to grow at an average annual rate in excess of 10% between 2009 and 2013.
Some of the European markets to watch over the next few years in terms of rate of growth are shown below. Of particular interest is the emergence of the Eastern Europe markets into Asia Pacific.
Top five source markets into Asia Pacific to 2013, by CAGR (%) By Origin -
Hungary - Arrivals: 3,445; CAGR% 2009-2013: 16.1
Romania - Arrivals: 22,253; CAGR% 2009-2013: 13.7
Russian Federation - Arrivals: 4,770,839; CAGR% 2009-2013: 13.4
Bulgaria - Arrivals: 10,157 ; CAGR% 2009-2013: 13.0
Portugal - Arrivals: 366,478; CAGR% 2009-2013: 12.3
For sheer volume gain, however, the more traditional source markets dominate. The Russian Federation in particular is predicted to post a double bonus for Asia Pacific destinations - a strong growth rate and a significant volume gain.
Top five source markets into Asia Pacific to 2013, by volume gain by Origin
Arrivals 2013f: 4,770,839; Volume gain 2009-2013: 1,883,508
Arrivals 2013f: 5,538,957; Volume gain 2009-2013: 1,212,008
Arrivals 2013f: 11,808,555; Volume gain 2009-2013:1,185,967
Arrivals 2013f: 6,053,746; Volume gain 2009-2013:1,176,402
Arrivals 2013f: 2,520,897; Volume gain 2009-2013:551,762
Said John Koldowski, deputy CEO and head, office of strategy management, PATA: “While the volume growth outlook for traffic from Europe to Asia is relatively weaker than from other source regions for the next few years, it must be recognized that Europeans rate very highly on other more sensitive measures of holiday tourism activity; they tend to stay much longer than many other source markets and also tend to spend more.
“As such, Europeans will continue to be a significant contributor to the Asia Pacific tourism balance sheet."
The PATA “Asia Pacific Tourism Forecasts 2011-13″ will be officially launched at PATA’s 60th anniversary celebrations and conference to be held in Beijing, China over April 10-12. For further information on the content and availability of these forecasts, as well as the PATA 60th anniversary event, please contact PATA at:PATA Communications; Bangkok, Thailand; Tel: +66 2 658 2000; Email: href="mailto:communications@PATA.org">communications@PATA.org ; Online newsroom: www.PATA.org/news .
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